Game 10 Preview: Gustavus at #24 Concordia

Last Week:
Last week Concordia tied to use its tried and true 2013 success theme of scoring early and then grinding out a tough conference victory but the Cobbers ran into a do-or-die St. Thomas team and lost 34-20.

The Cobbers grabbed a 13-0 lead at the 8:20 mark of the opening quarter but were then outscored 34-7 in the final 51:40 and lost for the first time in four games.

The biggest swing in the game between NCAA playoff hopefuls and nationally ranked teams centered around the halftime break. Concordia scored with 2:41 left in the second quarter to cut the lead to 21-20 but then the Tommies marched 72 yards in eight plays to take a 27-20 lead into the break.

St. Thomas (7-2/5-2 MIAC), who won the opening coin toss and deferred to receive the second half kickoff, opened the third quarter by going on a 12-play, 71-yard drive on the opening possession and scored on a 6-yard run to push the lead to 34-20.

Concordia's offense generated 220 total offensive yards in the first half but was then limited to only 73 in the final two quarters. The Cobbers had only 14 rushing yards in the second half on a mere nine carries as they were forced to chase the game for the final 30 minutes of play.     


Concordia vs. St. Thomas Recap

Gustavus is coming off a 34-19 win at home over Carleton. The story of the game, and for the entire season for the Gusties, was the running prowess of senior back Jeffrey DuBose. Dubose ran for a school-record 264 yards on 32 carries and scored four touchdowns. The 264 rushing yards set a new school record and his four TD's added to his school-record season total of 21.

Gustavus never trailed in the game against the Knights - earning their third win in the last four games. They scored a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter, traded scores in the second period to take a 24-13 lead into the break and then put the final touches on the win with 10 points in the final quarter. Dubose scored on runs of 59 and 28 yards in the first quarter and then added a 17-yard scamper in the second and a 20-yard burst in the fourth.

The Gusties finished with 285 rushing yards on the day and outgained Carleton 501-351 in total offense. Besides the discrepancy in rushing yards, the only other major statistical difference came from turnovers where the GAC defense forced three Knight turnovers. The Gustie offense didn't commit a single miscue in the game.      

   
Gustavus vs. Carleton Game Recap


Stat Central:
- 2013 Concordia Statistics

- 2013 Gustavus Statistics

- 2013 MIAC Statistics

- 2013 Concordia NCAA Team/Individual Rankings

- 2013 Gustavus NCAA Team/Individual Rankings

Pick 6 - 6 Items To Help You Take It To The House:
1. The recent series between Concordia and Gustavus falls under the headline "Home, Not Very Sweet Home"! The home team hasn't fared well lately as the last seven games in the series have been won by the visiting team. The last time a home team won a game in the series was back in 2005 when the Cobbers posted a 30-0 at "The Jake".

2. The game on Saturday could provide Concordia with another program milestone. The Cobbers have a chance to do something that has only been done twice in the 96-year history of Cobber football. Now that Concordia has surpassed the 500-win they are on the verge of only their third back-to-back eight-win season. The Cobbers won eight games in 1980 and then won 11 in the NAIA national title season of 1981. The only other time the feat has been accomplished was when they won 11 games in 2004 and then 10 in 2005.

3. Saturday’s Marquee Match-Up will be between the offensive line of Gustavus and the defensive front 7 of the Cobbers. If Concordia's D-line can plug holes and not allow Jeffrey Dubose the chance to get to the second level, CC has a great chance of limiting the league's best pure running back to a quiet game. Dubose has a school record 1,261 rushing yards in 2013 and is averaging 140.1 rushing yards per game. Last week he set a Gustavus single game record by toting the ball for 264 yards. To top his afternoon off against Carleton, he also finished with 344 all-purpose yards and scored four TD’s. Dubose has 21 touchdowns on the season which is also a Gustie record. Concordia’s defense is third in the MIAC against the rush, giving up 127.9 rushing yards per game. That stat will be tested as Gustavus runs the ball an average of 38.1 times per game.

4. The key to the game on Saturday could come down to whichever team is able to convert inside the Red Zone. The Cobbers are third in the MIAC in scoring percentage inside the opponent's 20-yard line - scoring at an 82% clip. However, Concordia is fifth in TD scoring once they get inside the 20. Gustavus converts on 81% of their trips to the Red Zone and is third in the league in TD's scored from inside the 20.            

5. One area where the Cobbers have really stood out in 2013 is fourth-down conversions. The Cobbers currently lead the nation in fourth down conversion rate. CC is converting on 75.0% (15-for-20) of their fourth-down attempts. Not only does that lead DIII but it would also be in the top 5 in FBS Division I. 

6. Pop quiz - what do you think of when we type the words "Cobber offense"? If you are like most fans around the MIAC you think rushing. However, as the GameDay staff's BFF Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!". Concordia currently has more passing yards (1864) than rushing yards (1763) on the season. If that holds up after Saturday it will mark the third time in the past five years that the Cobbers finish with more yards through the air than on the ground.    

7. Sadly we finish off this year's final Pick 6 with a tribute to our weekly "Wagner Watch". Unfortunately Concordia senior kicker Ben Wagner had his first extra point against St. Thomas blocked which ended his consecutive PAT streak at 78. The Fantastic French Flash is now 80-for-81 on extra points in his two-year career. He is currently second in the MIAC in field goal percentage and third in total field goals in conference games.    

Last Year:
Last year Concordia scored 22 unanswered points and beat Gustavus 29-10 in St. Peter. The game was tied 10-10 at the half before the Cobbers erupted for 19 straight points in the second half.

The key behind the win over the Gusties came from the Cobbers defense's ability to get off the field after third down in the second half. Gustavus was 4-for-7 on third down conversions in the first half and then the CC defense limited GAC to just 1-for-7 in the second half of play. The other key was Concordia's ability to hold on to the ball. The Cobbers did not commit a turnover in the game and had a total of 34:48 in time of possession.

Overall, CC gained 420 yards of total offense which included 302 on the ground. Concordia outgained the Gusties 420-301 including a 250-162 edge in the second half. The Cobbers were able to grind out 200 rushing yards in the final two quarters of play. The individual story of the game came from CC senior fullback Brett Baune who scored three TD’s and broke the school’s single season scoring record.  


Concordia vs. Gustavus 2012 Game Recap

Cobbers vs. Gusties Series History: Gusties lead 44-36-2 (series started in 1923)

Series Synopsis: Concordia has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. As stated in the Pick 6 the home team has struggled in the series as the last seven games in the series have been won by the visiting team...Gustavus has won the last three times the teams have played in Moorhead. The Cobbers hold an 8-3 edge since 2002...the longest winning streak in the series is eight games. Gustavus won eight straight from 1946-53...there have only been two shutouts in the series since 1970. The teams traded blankings in 2005 and 2006. CC shutout GAC 30-0 in 2005 and then the Gusties returned the favor a year later by winning 7-0. Both shutouts came at "The Jake". The last six games in the series have been relatively high scoring. Since the 2006 shutout, the teams have combined to score an average of 48.8 points per game...Cobber head coach Terry Horan is 8-4 vs. Gustavus.